Project Proposals on COASTAL EROSION
ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY OF SUB-SAHARAN COASTAL ZONES TO THE DIFFERENT
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (INCLUDED SEA LEVEL RISE)
1. Identifiers
Project Number: COS3
Project Title:
Assessment of the vulnerability of sub-Saharan coastal zones to the
different impacts of climate change (included sea level rise)
Tentative requesting
Côte d'Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Senegal, Seychelles, Tanzania
Countries:
Requesting
Cote d'Ivoire : Ministère de l'Enseignement Supérieur et de la
National Organizations:
Recherche Scientifique
The Gambia: National Environmental Agency (NEA)
Ghana: Ministry of Environment & Science
Kenya : Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI)
Mauritius: Ministry of Environment
Mozambique : Ministry of Coordination and Environmental
Affairs
Nigeria: Federal Ministry of Environment
Senegal : Ministère de la Jeunesse, de l'Environnement et de l'Hygiène
Publique
Seychelles : Ministry of Environment
Tanzania : Vice President's Office, Department of Environment
Executing Agencies:
Cote d'Ivoire: Centre de Recherches Océanographiques
The Gambia: National Environmental Agency (NEA), Coastal and
Marine Environment Working Group
Ghana: Ghana Surveys Department, Hydrological Services
Department, Environmental Protection Agency
Kenya : Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI)
Mauritius: Ministry of Environment, Meteorological Services and
the Mauritius Oceanographic Institute
Mozambique : Ministry of Coordination and Environmental
Affairs
Nigeria : Federal Ministry of Environment, Ministry of
Agriculture, Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine
Research (NIOMR)
Senegal : Direction de l'Environnement et des Etablissements
Classés
Seychelles : Climate Centre
Tanzania : National Environment Management Council
Required National
Cote d'Ivoire: Port Autonome d'Abidjan, Centre Ivoirien Anti
Partners:
Pollution, Université de Cocody
The Gambia: Department of State for Finance & Economic Affairs,
Chamber of Commerce
Ghana: Researchers in Universities and Research Institutions
Kenya: Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, National
Environment Management Authority, Meteorological Department
Kenya Wildlife Service, Coastal Development Authority
Mauritius: Ministry of Fisheries, Mauritius Oceanography
Institute, Ministry of Housing and Lands, Ministry of Economic
Development, FS & CA, AHRIM, NGOs
Mozambique: National Institute of Meteorology, Eduardo
Mondlane University, National Directorate of Water, Ministry of
Public Works and Housing
Nigeria : Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine
Research (NIOMR), OPTDS (Oil Industry), Niger Delta
Development Authority (NDDA), Center for Climate Change
Sénégal : Département de Géologie et LPA de l'Université Cheikh
Anta Diop, Equipe Vulnérabilité des zones côtières, Direction des
Phares et Balises (PAD)
Seychelles: Ministry of Land Use & Habitats and others
Tanzania Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism
Priority Issue Addressed:
20. Sea level change; 12-13 Modification/loss of ecosystems; 1:
Modification
of
stream
flows
Regional Scope:
Sub-Saharan African coastal countries
Project Location:
Coastal zones of all the requesting countries
The Gambia: Allahein River to Cape Point, Banjul Island
Kenya:
Ghazi
village
Mozambique: Southern Mozambique (Limpopo and Incomati
river basin), Zambezi river basin and Pungo river basin.
Tanzania : Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar
Other countries: all their coastline
Project Duration:
5 years
Working Group
Coastal Erosion
of the African Process
2. Summary:
The main objective of this project is to carry out a more in depth assessment of the vulnerability of sub-
Saharan coastal zones to the different impacts of climate change in a more integrated approach. The project
will not only address the impacts of sea level rise through the determination of historical trends in sea level
rise but also the mapping of vulnerable areas based on existing V&A studies. This will be completed by
vulnerability analyses including the impacts of other parameters of climate change (temperature,
precipitations) on the salinisation of waters, on ecosystems and socio-economic sectors as well as on
identification and evaluation of adaptation options.
Specific objectives will be:
o Measurement of historical sea level rise;
o Identify vulnerable coastal zones areas and/or sectors to climate change;
o Characterize this vulnerability and;
o Identify and select adaptation options with a regional context.
Expected results are:
1. Data on historical sea level rise;
2. Maps of vulnerable coastal zones by countries and at a regional level;
3. Documentation on the different types of expected impacts;
4. Database on potential adaptation options;
5. Adaptation strategies.
These results will constitute databases at national and sub-regional level that could be used by the country
to prepare their next national communication to the UNFCCC, but also to develop their national adaptation
strategy to the impacts of climate change in the coastal zones considered. In this sense, it is considered that
the project will not only benefit from the project on coastal erosion protection that could help to define
adaptation options but also feed into the project on coastal zone management by allowing the countries to
integrate the effects of climate change in the design of their integrated coastal zone management plans.
At a regional level, the results could allow a better understanding of the vulnerability of the African coastal
zones. They could also been used to develop adaptation strategies as part of national sustainable
development plans. In the NEPAD context these adaptation strategies could help to better design some
infrastructures that are considered under this strategy.
The main beneficiaries will be the governmental institutions that could integrate the adaptation strategies in
their national policies for a sustainable development but also could take in consideration coastal zones at
risk in their urban development, infrastructures and other kind of development activities envisaged in the
near future. The results could also, as previously mentioned, be considered for the preparation of the
second national communication to the UNFCCC. Private companies could equally be interested in the
location of vulnerable coastal areas in order to invest in a more sustainable way. The scientific community
could benefit from these results, particularly the IPCC which is seeking for more information on the
consequences of global warming on the African continent. Bilateral and multilateral agencies will certainly
consider the information issued specially in their consideration of the most urgent needs of the countries.
3. Costs and Financing (Million US $)1
International & bilateral sources:
Required financing by potential source :
US$ 7.3 million
Subtotal
international
financing
:
Co-financing:
Governments
in
cash
&
kind
:
US$170,603
1 This budget is preliminary and has not undergone a full consultation process with the respective
countries. Therefore, does not indicate the actual financial commitment that would be provided by
participating countries once the project proposal and its components are finalised.
Subtotal
Co-financing
:
Total Project Cost:
: approx. US$8 million
4. Government Endorsement(s)
Cote d'Ivoire : Ministère de l'Environnement et du Cadre de Vie
The Gambia:
Ghana: Ministry of Environment & Science
Kenya: Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI) (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural
Development), Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources.
Mauritius:
Mozambique: Ministry of Coordination and Environmental Affairs
Nigeria: Federal Ministry of Environment
Sénégal: Ministère de la Jeunesse, de l'Environnement et de l'Hygiène publique
Seychelles: Mr Lousteau-Lalane, Principal Secretary, Ministry of Environment
Tanzania: Minister of State in Vice President's Office, Department of Environment
5. Government Focal Point(s)
Cote d'Ivoire : Département Environnement du Centre de Recherches Océanographiques
The Gambia:
Ghana: Ministry of Works and Housing
Kenya : : Director, Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI)
Mauritius: Ministry of Environment
Mozambique : Telma Manjate, National Directorate of Environmental Management
Nigeria : Larry Awosika, Nigerian Institute for Oceanography and Marine Research (NIOMR)
Senegal : Mme Fatimata Dia-Toure, Direction de l'Environnement et des Etablissements Classés,
Ministère de la Jeunesse, de l'Environnement et des Etablissements Classés
Seychelles : Mr Rolph Payet, Director General, Policy planning, Ministry of Environment
Tanzania : Institute of Marine Sciences
6. African Process Working Group Focal Point(s)
Dr Isabelle NIANG-DIOP, University Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar, Senegal. Regional coordinator of the
Working Group on coastal erosion
Dr Alphonse DUBI, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
Dr Delphine MALLERET-KING, Private consultant, Kenya
PROJECT DESCRIPTION
1. Background & Justification:
According to the World Resources (UNDP/UNEP/WB/WRI, 2000), sub-Saharan Africa has a total coastal
length of 63,124 km with important ecosystems like beaches, mangroves, coral reefs and sea grass that not
only have a rich biodiversity but also constitute important resources upon which the society and the
economy are based. In the coastal area, defined as the zone comprised between the mean sea level and a
distance of 100 km inside, the population represents between 3 and 91% of the total population of sub-
Saharan Africa. For the requesting countries, this population represents between 7.6 and 90.8% of their
total population. Based on sligtly different definition of the coastal zone (within 60 km from the coastline),
the World Bank indicated that in 1994, about 86.3 million people lived in this area between Mauritania and
Somalia and it was expected that this number will dramatically increased in the next decade with an intense
urbanization of the coast (Hatziolos et al., 1996). The same document predicted that by 2025, the coastal
zone between Accra and the Niger delta will be a continuous chain of cities with a total population of 50
million. Important economic activities like fisheries, tourism, agriculture as well as crucial infrastructures
(roads, harbours) and cities are located in the coastal zones of sub-Saharan Africa. It is recognized that the
Sub-Saharan African coastal zone is already subject to environmental degradation, destructive practices or
unsustainable use of resources that weaken the ecosystems, deteriorate the quality of life and endanger the
economic activities in the coastal zone. Climate change and in particular sea level rise will add pressures
on the coastal zones leading mainly to a deterioration of the space, ecosystems, infrastructures and
economic activities and may also exacerbate the scale of the current pressures.This would threaten the
livelihood and development options of the coastal areas and of the countries.
1. Climate Change: a major threat for the coastal zones in Sub-Saharan Africa
Since the beginning of the first studies on the impacts of climate change in Africa, it appeared clearly that
climate change will have huge consequences on the coastal zones, specially on small islands (Ibe and
Awosika, 1991; Saha, 1991; Alusa and Ogallo, 1992; Hoozemans et al., 1993; Ibe and Ojo, 1994; Smith et
al., 1996). This is first due to their morphology mainly low lying coasts with numerous estuaries and
deltas but also small islands, the presence of important ecosystems (mangroves, coral reefs) that are highly
sensitive to climate parameters and then to the high concentration of population and economic activities
along these littorals based on a high dependency of the national economies on the natural resources
(beaches, halieutic resources, oil, sand, ...). Among all the expected climatic modifications, sea level rise is
the most certain change and most of the studies have been restricted to an analysis of the consequences of
sea level rise in the coastal zones. Under this respect small islands are considered particularly vulnerable
due to the limited space they have to relocate populations and activities. The main biophysical impacts of
sea level rise, as defined by the second IPCC assessment, are mainly: increased coastal erosion, more
extensive coastal inundation, higher storm surge flooding, salinisation of surface and ground waters, loss of
wetlands (Bijlsma et al., 1996). Ibe and Ojo (1994) also indicated that other components of climate change
could induce dramatic changes in water resources, energy resources through inundation of oil-producing
deltaic zones (Nigeria for example) and modifications in dams inducing changes in hydropower production
- and oceanic circulation, particularly upwellings, but also exacerbate drougth- and desertification. The
main coastal ecosystems at risk are mangroves and coral reefs (McLean et al., 2001). Mangroves are
strictly dependent on the sea level variations and also on the rainfall and salinity so it is expected that they
will migrate or die if lateral shifting is not possible or if salinity is too high. However, other factors like the
topography of the area but also the rate of sedimentation will be of importance in the response of
mangroves to sea level rise (Bijlsma et al., 1996). Coral reefs are highly susceptible to oceanic
temperatures and could not be able to keep pace with the expected rise in sea surface temperatures. The
observation of massive extinction of coral reefs in the Indian coast due to the onset of El Niño is a good
indication of the risk linked to climate change. There are also indications that lagoons will be under stress
mainly due to the disappearing of the littoral barrier ridge protecting them from the ocean. These
biophysical impacts of climate change could necessitate a relocation of some coastal populations while
new and/or aggravated health problems will occur. Furthermore, Alusa and Ogallo (1992), for the Eastern
African Region as well as Ibe and Ojo (1994) for the Atlantic African coast, identified the following
impacts of climate change on the main economic activities present in the coastal zones:
o Fisheries will be affected: first through the degradation/loss of such ecosystems like
mangroves and coral reefs which act mainly as spawning, breeding and nursing grounds for a number of
fish species, second through the changes in sea surface temperature and also in intensity and location of
upwellings that will modify the species distribution;
o Agriculture will be affected sometimes positively - by changes in CO2 atmospheric
concentration, temperature and rainfall that will modify the geographical distribution of agro-ecological
zones in relation with the sensitivity of most of the crops to climatic parameters. In the coastal zones, sea
level rise will also induce a salinization of soils, surface and ground waters that will necessary affect
agricultural lands. Permanent flooding will mean a loss of agricultural lands in a number of coastal zones;
o Coastal infrastructures (such as roads and harbours) will be endangered by sea level rise
inducing coastal erosion and inundation then inducing transportation difficulties in the region. For the
same reasons coastal towns and villages will be threatened and a number of people will have to be
displaced ;
o Tourism, mainly dependent on beaches and coral reefs or mangroves, will be affected by
an acceleration of coastal erosion due to sea level rise that will reduce the number of appropriate sites for
this activity but also by the modifications in the other coastal ecosystems.
This has been confirmed by the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change that recognized that "Tropical and subtropical coastlines, particularly in areas that are already
under stress from human activities, are highly susceptible to global warming impacts." (McLean et al.,
2001)
2. A limited number of vulnerability adaptation studies
Despite the important consequences that climate change will have on coastal zones of Sub-Saharan Africa,
not only on coastal ecosystems but also on their economy and on the society as a whole, very few coastal
countries have carried out assessment of their vulnerability to climate change (Niang-Diop, 1998). Up to
now, if we consider publications as well as the Initial National Communications to the United Nations
Convention on Climate Change, only 13 countries conducted a vulnerability-adaptation assessment (or
V&A study) : Senegal, The Gambia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Benin, Togo, Nigeria, Cameroon, South Africa,
Tanzania, Seychelles, Mauritius, Mozambique. Most of these studies considered mainly the impacts of sea
level rise on coastal erosion and flooding. It was in 1989, during the first workshop organized on the
adaptive responses to sea level rise and other impacts of climate change that African coastal countries
presented very preliminary assessments of their vulnerability to climate change (Titus, 1990). South Africa
presented first an assessment of the vulnerability of Walvis Bay (Namibia) to three sea-level rise scenarios
(0.2, 0.5 and 1 m) in terms of coastal retreat and salt water intrusion (Hughes et al., 1992). For this, they
used a coastal vulnerability index to estimate the vulnerability of the southern Cape Coast to a 1 m sea
level rise (Hughes and Brundrit, 1992). During the second meeting organized on the vulnerability of
coastal zones to sea level rise, Senegal and Nigeria presented the first quantitative results from a study
funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency (Awosika et al., 1994; Niang et al., 1994). These
V&A studies assessed, for different sea level rise scenarios (0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2 m by 2100), the land that will
be lost due to coastal erosion and flooding, the population and economic value at risk as well as the costs
of two different protection options (French et al., 1995; Dennis et al., 1995). Meanwhile, Mauritius
presented an analysis of land area, houses and infrastructures located between the mean sea level and an
altitude of 2 m (Jogoo, 1994). During the World Coast Conference in 1993, a very preliminary assessment
of the vulnerability of Seychelles to the impacts of sea level rise was presented emphasizing the critical
threat of an increase in intensity of cyclones and storm surges (Chang-Ko, 1995). In 1997, during an
International Workshop, first results of a vulnerability of Mozambique coasts to sea level rise were
presented showing that 900 km of coasts characterized by the presence of numerous rivers - are
particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and that implementation of integrated coastal zone management is a
matter of urgency (Chemane et al., 1997). The town of Beira was chosen to do a more detailed assessment
based on 3 scenarios of sea level rise (0.2, 0.5 and 1 m) which allow to determine the potential coastal
retreat. The Gambia did a V&A study using 3 sea-level rise scenarios (0.2, 0.5 and 1 m by 2100) and
calculated the areas of land to be lost, the population and economic value at risk but only for the Banjul-
Cape St Mary area while adaptation options were only identified qualitatively (Jallow et al., 1996, 1999).
Same scenarios were used to assess the vulnerability of a portion of the Côte d'Ivoire coastline - the
Abidjan region - to sea level rise and allowed for a quantification of land losses while economic values at
risk were only identified as well as potential response and adaptation options (Jallow et al., 1999).
Tanzania benefited from the US Country Studies Programme and assessed the vulnerability of its coastal
zone using two sea level rise scenarios (0.5 and 1 m). The area of lands susceptible to be lost by inundation
and coastal erosion was estimated as well as the economic value of important structures that will be
affected and the costs of protection for the Dar es Salaam coastline and for the all coastline (Mwandosya et
al., 1998).
Other vulnerability and adaptation assessments have not yet been published but are present either in the
Initial National Communications to the UNFCCC or in the form of reports. Ghana in its Initial National
Communication to the UNFCCC presented the results of a V&A study on its coastal zone. Results are
presented qualitatively but also quantitatively in terms of area of land at risk, population to be displaced,
wetlands at risk. Shoreline protection options are estimated in terms of global costs while legal and
institutional framework is considered. The Initial National Communication of Seychelles to the UNFCCC
(Payet, 1998) indicates that an estimated 85% of human settlements and infrastructure are situated on the
coastal zones of main granitic islands and thus would all be vulnerable to an increase in sea-level rise and
extreme weather conditions. Sea level rise would result in the displacement of a large portion of the
population and coastline recession would also affect infrastructure and biodiversity. These potential
impacts will induce problems in the tourism sector.
It is striking that most of these studies rarely went further than general, qualitative assessments with the
exception of the estimation of land areas susceptible to be lost. Moreover, most of the studies only
considered the impacts of sea level rise and mainly coastal erosion and flooding while, for example,
salinization processes where rarely considered and if so only on a qualitative way. Also, the other climate
change parameters that will also influence the status of coastal zones in case of climate change were not
taken into account. In these conditions, it must be considered that globally the impacts of climate change in
the coastal zones of sub-Saharan Africa were underestimated.
The main objective of this project is then to contribute to a more in depth assessment of the vulnerability of
sub-Saharan coastal zones to the different impacts of climate change in a more integrated approach. The
project will not only address the impacts of sea level rise through the determination of historical trends in
sea level rise but also the mapping of vulnerable areas based on existing V&A studies. This will be
completed by vulnerability analyses including the impacts of other parameters of climate change
(temperature, rainfall) on the salinisation of waters, on coastal ecosystems and socio-economic sectors as
well as on identification and evaluation of adaptation options.
Actually, the Non Annex I countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) are urged to define adaptation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change. However,
studies have so far been too much qualitative and limited (impacts of sea level rise) to enable a precise idea
of all the potential impacts of climate change. The project will therefore allow beneficial countries to have
a more global picture of their vulnerability to climate change that will allow them to further prioritize their
adaptation options. These could be merged in a strategy that could be integrated in the national
development plans. The results of this project could also be integrated in the coastal zone management
plans that will take into account future trends and impacts of climate change.
However, in sub-Saharan Africa climate change will take place in a context where the expertise, financial
and technical resources are limited. This is why capacity building, technology transfer but also stakeholder
involvement are important components for the success of adaptation of sub-Saharan countries to the
impacts of climate change.
2.
Objectives & Expected Results:
Objectives
The main objectives of the project are to assess the vulnerability2 of coastal States to the impacts of climate
change and to ensure the sustainable use of the littoral zone through, in particular, an appropriate
adaptation strategy and more integrated coastal zone management plans.
Specific objectives will be:
o measurement of historical sea level rise;
o identify vulnerable coastal zones areas and / or sectors to climate change;
o characterize this vulnerability and;
o select adaptation options with a regional approach.
Through the course of the project the impacts of climate change in the coastal zones will not be limited
only to the impacts of sea level rise. This will allow a better integrated approach for the development of the
adaptation strategy.
Expected results
Expected results are:
1. Data on historical sea level rise;
2. Maps of vulnerable coastal zones by countries and at a regional level;
3. Documentation on the different types of expected impacts;
4. Database on potential adaptation options;
5. National adaptation strategies.
These results will constitute databases at national and sub-regional levels that could be used by the
countries to prepare their next national communication to the UNFCCC, but also to develop their national
adaptation strategy to the impacts of climate change in the coastal zones for inclusion in the national
development plans.
Coherence with the national and sub-regional priorities
In the national reports issued from the first phase of this GEF-MSP project on Development and Protection
of the Marine and Coastal Environment in sub-Saharan Africa, two countries, Seychelles and Nigeria,
identified sea level rise (as one of the consequences of global climate change) as a major environmental
issue and as a potential threat to their coastal zones in a context where coastal erosion, flooding,
salinisation and degradation of ecosystems are already experienced. As many small island states,
Seychelles expressed concern about the potential impacts of climate change, specially those linked with sea
level rise, increased extreme events and climate induced changes in the ecosystems. It was considered as
an issue for all the hot spots and sensitive areas and was ranked on 2nd position in the national report. Sea
level rise is already taken in account by ongoing projects like the East Coast Reclamation project that have
elevated the height of reclamation by an additional 70 cm to allow for sea level rise. The report considered
also as a priority the development of comprehensive vulnerability assessments in order to develop
appropriate strategies of adaptation to climate change. Nigeria is already affected by a strong erosion and
regular coastal flooding and noted in its report that "it is expected that with global change and specifically
sea level rise, these problems will increase" as the first V&A in Lagos State and Niger delta already
indicate. In total, over 18,000 km2 or 2 percent of the Nigerian coastal zone and about 3.68 million people
are at risk with a one meter sea level rise. The value at risk is estimated at U.S $18 134 billion also with a
one meter sea level rise. In its recommendations, the report suggested "to take in account coastal protection
2 Vulnerability is here understood as the combination between impacts and adaptation to climate change.
from flooding and erosion resulting from future sea level rise". Moreover, Cote d'Ivoire and The Gambia,
in their reports, identified the actual sea level rise as one cause of coastal erosion.
Among the 10 countries parties to this project, all the countries which presented their Initial National
Communication to the UNFCCC (Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Seychelles, Mauritius) have considered
their coastal zone as a prime sector for the V&A studies.
During the PACSICOM conference, the participants indicated that the building of an African network of
tide gauges to monitor sea level rise was one of the priority action and decided to create the GOOS-Africa
(Global Ocean Observing System) (IOC, 1999). It is considered that the determination of historical trend of
sea level rise from the existing tide gauges could contribute to this priority since sea level rise can better be
detected from long term records. Moreover, the PACSICOM Statement indicated that "the expected
impacts of climate change, sea-level rise in particular, will exacerbate the present problems and could,
inter alia, impair future development and use of low-lying areas and coastal zones and cause setbacks in
our efforts to achieve sustainable development". One of the commitments that African governments made
during the PACSICOM conference was "to promote concerted efforts, at the regional level, to monitor the
impacts caused by climate change and to encourage regional and international co-operation to address the
impacts".
Relevance of expected results
The results of the project on the impacts of climate change and sea level rise on coastal zones could be
used at different levels.
At a national level, the coastal zones are areas of rich biodiversity but also the basis for crucial economic
activities such that attempting to understand potential impacts of climate change and defining adaptation
strategies to limit these consequences are critical issues. While a number of efforts are deployed to define
and implement Coastal Zone Management Plans and Sustainable Development Strategies, these are still
not taking into account climate change. This situation could change with a better knowledge of the
vulnerability to climate change that allow to integrate adaptation options in the strategic plans of
development for coastal zones. The second IPCC assessment (Bijlsma et al., 1996), reinforced by the third
IPCC assessment, recognized that "adaptation options are best addressed when they are incorporated in
integrated coastal management and sustainable development plans" (McLean et al., 2001). The results
could also be used by the countries for their Initial or Second National Communications to the UNFCCC.
3.
Project Components/Activities
Components and activities
Four main components will be undertaken in order to deliver the expected outputs:
1. Component 1 : Determination of historical sea level rise. According to McLean et al.
(2001), the information on historical trends of sea level is considered as one important component in the
analysis of the impacts of climate change in the coastal zones. However, sub-Saharan Africa is generally
lacking tide gauges records long enough to allow for sea level analysis. Only 6 of the participating
countries have this kind of tide gauges (Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, South Africa, Kenya and
Mauritius). It could thus be possible to determine the historical trend and eventually to detect changes in
the trend with these data. If possible, tide gauge data will be compared with satellite data that register the
actual variation of the sea level. For the new tide gauge stations, it will be possible to at least retrieve the
records for baseline information. These results could help to better define relative sea level rise scenarios
for the countries concerned, to assess the reality of sea level rise and eventually to detect sub-regional
differences.
i.
Activity 1.1 : identification and collection of all the available data that could allow
for the determination of the sea level trend. For each tide gauge, a control of the quality of the data must be
ensured, based on collaboration with National Port Authorities and the Permanent Service for Mean Sea
Level as well as GLOSS. Depending of the countries, the data could come from the same tide gauge or
from different tide gauges. In the second case, it will be necessary to do a topographic levelling to know
the exact altitudinal position of the different gauges;
ii.
Activity 1.2 : based on the data, each country will establish the sea level trend for
the period considered. An analysis of this trend and variability will be proposed based on the knowledge of
the different factors responsible for the changes in sea level (currents, upwellings, subsidence);
iii.
Activity 1.3 : synthesis of the data to identify the trends of sea level rise in the sub-
Saharan Africa, look for possible sub-regional differences and compare with other sources of data
(litterature, satellite data if available).
2. Component 2: Delimitation of vulnerable coastal zones to the impacts of climate change.
These vulnerable zones could be first defined as those that will be threatened by sea-level rise mainly
through coastal erosion and/or coastal flooding. These elements of the coastal vulnerability will be
assessed using current methodologies like the Bruun rule (1962, 1988) and the inundation levels defined by
the Hoozemans et al. (1993) formula. These vulnerable coastal areas will be mapped using the same scale
and GIS.
i.
Activity 2.1 : definition of the conditions of analysis. The methodologies to be used
(Bruun rule, Hoozemans et al. formula, satellite images and GIS) as well as the sea level rise scenarios,
time horizons and scales to be considered will be agreed upon in order to obtain comparable results. Based
on the existing maps and beach profiles, the sites where the analysis will be conducted will be decided
(preferably the whole country or specific coastal zones with similar conditions for example deltas,
estuaries, coastal wetlands). Existing analyses will be identified and results will be retrieved ;
ii.
Activity 2.2 : the identification of areas likely to disappear due to coastal erosion
and coastal flooding. For the time horizons chosen, maps of the land areas to be lost will be created and
superrimposed on land use maps. Using GIS, the areas likely to be lost as well as the different land use
present in these zones will be determined. In a second time, the economic valuation of these lands to be
lost will be done as well as an estimation of population at risk;
iii.
Activity 2.3: based on the results obtained an analysis of the potential impacts will
be carried out, taking in account the actual situation (ecosystems, population, economic activities,
infrastructures, cultural and historical sites, etc.) but also the different development plans for the vulnerable
areas concerned as well as the evolution of some socio-economic parameters (populations, GDP, etc.). A
first synthesis will be made at the sub-regional level to assess the degree of vulnerability of the coastal
areas thus determined;
3. Component 3: Analysis of the vulnerable coastal areas to determine environmental and
socio-economic consequences of climate change in all its dimensions, that to say not only sea level rise in
most the V&A studies, that has been the only climate change component that was assessed, despite the fact
that it is now recognized that other climate parameters could be of influence [like for example changes in
the wave storminess, McLean et al. (2002)] - but also changes in other climate parameters like temperature
and precipitations. In this part, we shall focus, as appropriate, on coastal ecosystems, processes of
salinisation of soils and waters but also on socio-economic impacts. This analysis will be as quantitative as
possible and will depend on the existence of climate change scenarios and appropriate models. It will allow
to qualify the extent of the impacts of climate change. Particular attention will be devoted to hot spots and
sensitive areas determined in the Phase I of the project.
i.
Activity 3.1: choice of the systems and sectors to be assessed and definition of
scenarios. Based on the national conditions, each country will decide on which systems and/or sectors to
work in order to determine other impacts of climate change (changes in salinisation, temperature,
precipitations, etc.). It could be coastal ecosystems (coral reefs, mangroves, etc.) (marine ecosystems will
be considered by RES3), soils and/or groundwaters as affected by salinization, economic sectors (fisheries,
tourism, agriculture, etc.). Existing climate change scenarios (mainly those determined for the first V&A
studies and reported in the Initial National Communications to the UNFCCC) will be used and selected
using the available information (TAR of IPCC, publications and first results of AIACC) one condition
being their compatibility with the sea level rise scenario. Each country will define socio-economic
scenarios based on existing national scenarios already used for development planning or on scenarios
defined by international bodies like the World Bank, UNDP, etc. At least the same time horizons as those
defined in activity 2.1 will be used;
ii.
Activity 3.2: impacts analysis for the systems and sectors chosen. This analysis will
be as quantitative as possible. Where available, impact models will be used. The systems and sectors to be
analyzed will be to the extent possible considered in an integrated way. The objective here is to integrate
changes in other climate parameters in the impact analysis to complement the component 2 that is devoted
to sea level rise only. For example, the impacts of increased temperature and decreased precipitation will
be assessed for a mangrove ecosystem or for the evolution of the salt water/fresh water interface in the
coastal aquifers. If systems are considered, the impacts of changes on economic activities and populations
will be also determined ; in case of sectors, the relationship with other sectors will be also analyzed;
iii.
Activity 3.3: a synthesis of the results with an objective of integration of the
different impacts will be made at national level. It will be completed at the sub-regional level with a view
to have more detailed information of the importance of impacts of climate change on the coastal zones.
Gaps and limitations will be identified and a tentative comparison with other regional analysis will be
done.
4. Component 4: Identification and evaluation of adaptation measures that could help to
minimize the negative impacts of climate change while considering potential opportunities. This part could
benefit from the project on coastal erosion control (COS1) during which coastal protection measures will
be developed and monitored but also where exchange of experiences at the continental level will also take
place. On the other side, this component could be an input to the project on integrated coastal zone
management (COS2) through the integration of the climate change component in the management plans.
i.
Activity 4.1 : Considering the different impacts climate change could have in the
countries, a first step will consist in the identification of potential adaptation options. As feasible, these
options must come from existing adaptation options coastal populations or States develop in case of similar
situations either at a national or sub-regional level. Other options will consist in options available on the
international market;
ii.
Activity 4.2 : Evaluation of adaptation options. Each option will be evaluated in
terms of costs, feasibility (technical and human resources available), constraints (cultural, legal,
institutional, etc.) and impacts (what consequences these options will have on the environment, society and
economy). A matrix of evaluation will be produced based on a multi-criteria analysis. Some
recommendations will be made;
iii.
Activity 4.3 : Definition of an adaptation strategy: a prioritization process taking in
account the matrix of evaluation and the objectives of the country will allow to define an adaptation
strategy that will include the priority adaptation options. Meantime, each country will screen how this
strategy could fit into the national development plans. The legal, institutional, technical and financial
consequences of this strategy will be assessed.
A synthesis of all the project will be done at a national level. Then, all the results obtained in the different
countries will be synthesized to obtain a global overview of the vulnerability of the coastal zones to the
impacts of climate change as well as of the adaptation strategies. The coherence of the proposals will be
screened. The methodologies used and the results will be presented in documents aimed to disseminate the
information to the different stakeholders and decision makers.
Duration of the project
A general time frame of 5 years will be appropriate for this project, each country performing at least 2 of
the components, depending on the state they are in the assessment of the vulnerability of their coastal zone
to climate change.
Organisational matters
It is considered that this project will be run by a sub-regional committee that will be linked with national
implementing committees. The main interest of such a set up will be to ensure an exchange of experiences
in this domain. On another side, it is known that the coastal zones are closely linked at a regional level
either by littoral currents, migration of species and/or transfer of sediments but also through exchange of
goods and people (fishermen for example), so that it is quite unrealistic to think that the adoption and
implementation of adaptation strategies in one country will not affect the neighbouring countries.
Moreover, the main impacts of climate change that coastal countries will face are globally the same and
will intervene in comparable socio-economic situations. Thus the benefits that countries could gain from a
sub-regional approach will not only concern the problem analysis but also the exchange of experience and
knowledge on adaptation strategies.
Measurement of the implementation of the project
Each participating country must generate a work plan comprising the main milestones (reports, workshops,
publications). The role of the sub-regional committee will be to ensure that the work plan will be fullfilled
by each country.
The main indicators that could be used will be:
o The periodic reports: intermediary and annual reports must be prepared by each
national committee that will be examined by the sub-regional committee;
o Workshops and meetings: depending on the work plan, different workshop must be
organized at a country level to ensure a two way process between the national committee and the
different stakeholders;
o Publications and other documents: it is expected that the national and sub-regional
committees will edit different documents to ensure the dissemination of the results obtained;
o The most important indicator will be the adoption of adaptation strategy at country
level and its inclusion in the national development policy even though the last must be considered as a
process that perhaps will go beyond the limits of the project.
4.
Project Preparation
Before the beginning of the project, it will be necessary to conduct two main tasks:
1. an inventory of existing V&A studies in the countries with the main aims to define the data that are
available, the complementary studies that could be conducted and precise how the country will be
involved in the project (specific activities, etc.);
2. identify the potential members of the national and sub-regional committees based on experience
and field of expertise. Set upof these committees.
These activities are considered to take place before the beginning of the project and considered as
apreparatory phase.
5. Linkages to Other National or International Activities
The project will either benefit or feed sub-regional and international programmes that are actually
developed for the marine and coastal zones in Africa.
The project is rooted in the process of revitalization of the Abidjan and Nairobi Conventions. These
Conventions have been established at a time when climate change was not a recognized issue as it is now.
What is identified as a threat in the Conventions is coastal erosion (art. 10 of the Abidjan Convention;
PNUE, 1981). In the 5th meeting of the contracting parties to the Abidjan Convention, a two-years work
plan was adopted which comprises a long term monitoring of coastal areas as one action under the
component "coastal erosion and shore line changes" (UNEP, 2000). During its Third Conference of
Parties, the countries signatories of the Nairobi Convention indicated the great concern they had on coastal
erosion and shoreline changes. They defined in their working plan a component named "shoreline
changes" that consider two priority activities strongly linked with this project: a) the need for long term
monitoring of shorelines changes and b) a risk assessment of vulnerable areas. The proposed project will
usefully complement the activities Parties to the Abidjan and Nairobi Conventions have engaged under
their biennial programmes.
The World Wildlife Fund, in its Eastern African Marine Ecoregion Action Programme (WWF, 20023),
recognizes that climate change constitutes a threat to the different habitats of the region and considers that
the coral bleaching observed in 1998 in the Indian Ocean as well as large scale deaths of fish and other
marine species observed in 2002 may be associated with climate change.
The Gulf of Guinea Large Marine Ecosystem (GOG-LME) project identified the need for contingency
plans for human-induced and natural including potential effects of climate change even if the project is
much more oriented towards pollution.
At an international level, there is a need to have more information on the observed climate change and
particularly on the sea level rise. The analysis of the historical trend of sea level in Africa could be part of
the global efforts to better monitor sea level through programmes like the Global Sea Level Observing
Systems (GLOSS), the Global Ocean Observing System and its African component (GOOS-Africa). More
generally, the project will benefit from and contribute to the ODINAFRICA (Ocean Data and Information
Network for Africa) Programme for which the main aims are to develop national oceanographic data
centres, networking among scientists and constitution of national and regional databases. They would also
satisfy the decisions 14/CP4 and 5/CP5 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
that recommend a global effort to include Non Annex I countries in the global monitoring systems.
More detailed assessment of the vulnerability of African coastal zones to climate change will also
contribute to the efforts of the scientific community present in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) towards a better understanding of the impacts of climate change. It will complement the
GEF project AIACC (Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions or
Sectors) which already accepted for funding 11 African projects, one being on the impacts of climate
change on tourism in Seychelles and Comoros.
6.
Regionality & Transboundary Aspects
Climate change and sea level rise will affect indistinctly all the African coastal states. It is considered that
due to their coastal morphology (low lying coasts with estuaries, deltas and coastal wetlands ; small islands
in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans), the high concentration of population and economic activities along
their coasts and also the weakness of their economies, most of the African coastal states will be highly
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The experience gained in this project could be useful for the
other coastal states that are not part of this project.
As indicated previously, the African coastal zones are areas where numerous exchanges (of sediments,
species and human beings) are taking place. This transboundarity explains the commonality of some
present and future environmental problems experienced in the African coastal zones. This is the reason
why adaptation strategies must also be considered in a sub-regional context since the adoption of some
options by country A could have consequences on the coastal zone of country B.
7. Demonstrative Value & Replicability:
The project will use methodologies that could be applicable in other coastal countries of the sub-region
based on the experience developed during this project. One major comment that African countries made in
relation to the preparation of their vulnerability and adaptation assessments is that the tools commonly used
don't always fit with the constraints that these countries face (lack of data, limited human resources and
financial means. It is expected that the combination of tools and expertise applied in the participating
countries will constitute a solid basis for a potential "exportation" to neighbouring countries that have the
same problems and same context.
The results could be useful for the African negotiators in the UNFCCC process to table concrete examples
of the impacts of climate change and sea level rise in the coastal countries with different contexts: from
small islands (Seychelles, Mauritius) to major deltas (Nigeria, Ghana, Mozambique) and estuaries
(Senegal, The Gambia). The countries involved are also representing different climatic conditions: from
semi-arid (Senegal) to humid (Nigeria, Tanzania).
The innovative approach of this project lies not in the methodologies that will be used but on the way by
which it will be implemented. The sub-regional approach (although implementation will be at countries
levels working within a definite timeframe and using the same methodologies) with a coordinating sub-
regional body that will ensure the coherence and transfer of knowledge-experience between the countries is
believed to add considerable value.
8. Risks and Sustainability :
Risks
The main risks linked with this project are:
o Uncertainties linked with the predictions of climate change specially for precipitations
and modification of oceanic circulation as well as extreme events;
o The non definition of adaptation strategies. The experience of V&A studies has shown
that too much time and resources are devoted to impacts assessment so that adaptation options are not
well identified and prioritized and no strategy is defined. Another cause is the uncertainties linked with
the scenarios used;
o The non integration of adaptation strategy in the national development plans.
To limit the risks identified, the following measures can be considered:
o Particular emphasis must be put on the "no regret" adaptation options that could be
defined as those that could be beneficial whether climate change is taking place or not. In this category
are also options relative to elements ofclimate change that are quite sure (sea level rise, warming, );
o The work plan must be designed in such a way that enough time is devoted to
adaptation (component 4). The same must be true for the allocation of resources;
o The composition of the national committees must be such that important
representatives of the government are members in order to ensure that adaptation strategy could be
integrated in the national development plans. Other means will be the workshops and dissemination
documents that will be produced by the project;
o The implication of the public for example through awareness campaigns could also
develop the conscienceness in the public of the importance of climate change and its consequences. It
will thus be able to influence decision makers.
Sustainability of the project
It will depend on:
o The integration of adaptation strategies in the development plans that will suppose the
budgeting of some activities and thus a long term funding mechanism;
o The active involvement of the different stakeholders: if the main stakeholders that
have been identified are conscious of the threat of climate change and the necessity to implement
adaptation strategy, they will be attentive to convince the authorities to effectively implement these
strategies;
o Capacity building gained by the countries could allow a long term consideration of
climate change and develop their adaptive capacity. Activities like national and sub-regional
workshops would contribute to this through exchange of experience and expertise at these two levels.
9. Stakeholder Participation:
Stakeholders must be considered at different levels:
At a national level, a number of actors need to be considered in all the levels of the project implementation
like:
o Government bodies: they are interested in the results of the study that could be
integrated in the national development planning (adaptation strategy) and used in the UNFCCC context
either through the National Communications or during the negotiations process. To ensure a good
integration of the results all the representatives of the different Ministries must be considered
(environment, fisheries, urban management, finances, economy, ...) but also national committees that
have been created by the Government to assist in specific fields (Sustainable Development
commissions, Climate change committees, etc.);
o Scientific community: it is supposed that this community will be involved in the
national assessments that need multidisciplinary teams. Institutions and searchers that already
contributed in such studies will be identified and involved;
o Decentralized institutions: the local institutions (municipalities, districts, ...) will be
involved since vulnerable areas will be certainly confined to some restricted areas where the local
governments are pre-eminent. It is impossible to develop an adaptation strategy without the agreement
of these kind of decentralized bodies;
o Coastal users (fishermen, coastal population, tourism operators, ...) at large
(individuals and associations) must be part of the process since they are the most exposed and hence
impacted by climate change and sea level rise and those whose contribution will be essential in the
identification and implementation of adaptation strategy.
At a regional level, representatives of regional and sub-regional projects and associations will be invited to
contribute in the process.
It is agreed that participatory approach is one of the conditions not only for the success of projects
intending to solve problems in which populations are implied. It is thus considered that stakeholders will
be invited in different meetings organized at all stages of the project. They must be also represented in the
national committees that will be charged with the regular follow up of the project. At some stages
(identification of potential adaptation options), consultations will be conducted in the different
communities and/or stakeholders to ensure a better assessment of opportunities, constraints and status of
these options.
10. Project Management & Implementation Arrangements:
Each country participating in the project is to establish a scientific committee that will be charged with the
technical study and a national committee that will be responsible for the monitoring of the project as well
as the involvement of the different stakeholders. An institution must be designated at the beginning of the
study as the focal point receiving all the information relative to the project (reports, maps, etc.).
It is proposed that a sub-regional coordination committee will be established to ensure the coherence and
integration of the studies in the different countries (same methodologies used or control of the
methodologies), to serve as an advisory body and to synthesize and disseminate the information through
web site, publication, brochures, etc. as appropriate. This committee must be hosted by one of the
participating country and must provide the technical capacities to execute regional synthesis (maps, reports
and publications as well as others materials for stakeholders and decision makers awareness). It is through
this sub-regional coordination committee that experience and expertise in the sub-region could be shared
and developed. Participation of other regional experts will be welcomed.
The committees will be meeting on regular bases and do intermediate reports that will allow a good
monitoring of the project implementation. These reports must serve as a basis for more open meetings
involving the different stakeholders to keep them informed of the progress made and collect their
suggestions and contributions.
It is suggested that a coordination mechanism be established between the 3 projects working under coastal
erosion group as well as with the project RES-3 on "Impacts of global climate change on streamflow and
estuaries in sub-Saharan Africa".
11. Project Financing & Duration:
Table 1.
Component & Activity Financing
External Source of Funds
National Government
Total
Source 1
Source 2
Source 2
Cash
In-kind
Component
1 500,000
Activity
1.1 270,000
Activity
1.2 80,000
Activity
1.3 150,000
Component
2 1,400,000
Activity
2.1 200,000
Activity
2.2 850,000
Activity
2.3 350,000
Component
3 2,400,000
Activity
3.1 550,000
Activity
3.2 1,200,000
Activity
3.3 650,000
Component
4 3,000,000
Activity
4.1 800,000
Activity
4.2 1,400,000
Activity
4.3 800,000
Total
7,300,000
Note: This budget is preliminary and has not undergone a full consultation process with the respective
countries. Therefore, does not indicate the actual financial commitment that would be provided by
participating countries once the project proposal and its components are finalised.
Country's contributions in kind: only three countries indicated their possible contribution in kind
Cote d'Ivoire: 0,1 million US$
Kenya: Contribution of 5 million Kshilling (1 US$ = 78 KSh) = 64,103 US $
Nigeria: 6,500 US $
The project's duration is estimated to be 5 years, not included the time necessary for the project
preparation.
12. Funding Information for Investments
13. Monitoring, Evaluation &Dissemination:
Administrative arrangements proposed to manage and monitor the project are described under item 10.
Evaluation of the project could be ensured by two mechanisms:
o Workshops with all stakeholders at all stages of the project implementation to present
preliminary results, have the inputs from the stakeholders and take decisions for the following steps.
This will allow stakeholders to be part to the process, to control it from the beginning till the end of the
project;
o Independent evaluation could be decided and organized for each component of the
project and for the whole project.
Dissemination of the results of the project is crucial given the objectives of the project. It is proposed to
prepare different kinds of documents addressing the different stakeholders, users at large of the results of
this project:
o Publications in international journals to give a wide audience to the results of the
project. It is supposed that the results from each country as well as the synthesis could allow for at least
one publication each;
o Brochures will resume the results of the project and will be targeted at the stakeholders
and the decision makers. They must be attractive enough to transmit the main results and messages.
They will be generated by each country but also at a sub-regional level. In this sense, they could give
information to the sub-regional bodies, organizations and to the donors on the work accomplished
under the project;
o A web site with all the results will also permit a wide information on the project;
o Other means of communication (articles in newspapers, films, etc.) could be used.
14. Work Plan and Timetable:
Table 2 :
Outline Work Plan and Timetable
Year 1
2
3
4
5
Quarter
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Component 1
Activity
1.1
Activity
1.2
Activity
1.3
Component 2
Activity
2.1
Activity
2.2
Activity
2.3
Component 3
Activity
3.1
Activity
3.2
Activity
3.3
Component 4
Activity
4.1
Activity
4.2
Activity
4.3
Total
ANNEXES
II. Logframe
Matrix
Summary
Objectively verifiable indicators
Means of Verification (Monitoring Focus)
Critical Assumptions and Risks
Overall goal of the intervention
Definition of the vulnerability of - National adaptation strategies;
Final reports;
Existence of enough human resources
coastal zones to the impacts of -Better information of stakeholders
Publications
Existence of enough data
climate change and definition of - Integration of the strategy in Data bases
Uncertainties linked to climate changeThe
national adaptation strategies
national development plans
Workshop reports and dissemination products
non collaboration between the different
Modifications in the strategic plans and other stakeholders
development instruments
The non integration of adaptation strategies
in development plans
Project Outputs
Op1 : Measurement of the historical Op1 : Rates of sea level rise for Op1: Synthesis report of component 1,
Op1: accessibility to data and possibility to
sea level rise
each country
publications, databases
identify position of old tide gauges
Op2 : Identification of vulnerable Op2 : Maps of inundable and Op2 : Synthesis and workshop reports, Op2 : existence of remote sensing centers in
areas and sectors to sea level rise
erodable areas identified; potential publications, maps available
the countries, human resources available
losses determined
Op3 : availability and adaptability of models
Op3 : Characterisation of the Op3 : Identification and evaluation Op3: Synthesis and workshop reports, and data, enough expertise
vulnerability of the coastal zones to of other impacts of climate change
publications, quantification of risks
climate change
Op4: National adaptation strategy
Op4: will depend on the impacts assessment
Op4 : Definition of a national and formal engagement of the Op4 : Synthesis and workshop reports; and the contribution of stakeholders
strategy to adapt to climate change
national authorities to integrate this integration of adaptation strategies in The main risk is the no consideration of
strategy in development plans
development plans
adaptation strategies in the development
plans
III.
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